Mavi Boncuk |
National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project
"Sev seni seveni hak ile yeksan (yerle bir) etse de. Sevme seni sevmiyeni Misir'a Sultan etse de/Love someone who loves you even if he floors you. Dont love someone who does not love you even if he makes you the ruler of Egypt." Old turkish saying
In this important CIA report, Turkey was mentioned 4 times. See the full PDF here
Mavi Boncuk
Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project
Based on consultations with nongovernmental experts around the world
December 2004
(page 57)
Possible Turkish membership presents both challenges—because of Turkey’s size and religious and cultural differences—as well as opportunities, provided that mutual acceptance and agreement can be achieved. In working through the problems, a path might be found that can help Europe to accommodate and integrate its growing Muslim population.
(page 58)
According to US Census Bureau projections, about half of the world’s population lives in countries or territories whose fertility rates are not sufficient to replace their current populations. This includes not only Europe, Russia, and Japan, where the problem is particularly severe, but also most parts of developed regions such as Australia, New Zealand, North America, and East Asian countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea. Certain countries in the developing world, including Arab and Muslim states such as Turkey, Algeria, Tunisia, and Lebanon, also are dropping below the level of 2.1 children per woman necessary to maintain long-term population stability.9
9 Nicholas Eberstadt, “Four Surprises in Global Demography,” Foreign Policy Research Institute’sWatch on the
West, Vol 5, Number 5, July 2004.
(page 61)
If no changes were implemented Europe could experience a further overall slowdown, and individual countries might go their own way, particularly on foreign policy, even if they remained nominal members. In such a scenario, enlargement is likely to stop with current members, making accession unlikely for Turkey and the Balkan countries, not to mention long-term possibilities such as Russia or Ukraine. Doing just enough to keep growth rates at one or two percent may result in some expansion, but Europe probably would not be able to play a major international role commensurate with its size.
(page 63)
Deliveries from the Yamal-Europe pipeline and the Blue Stream pipeline will help Russia increase its gas sales to the EU and Turkey by more than 40 percent over 2000 levels in the first decade of the 21st century; as a result, Russia’s share of total European demand will rise from 27 percent in 2000 to 31 percent in 2010. Russia, moreover, as the largest energy supplier outside of OPEC, will be well positioned to marshal its oil and gas reserves to support domestic and foreign policy objectives. Algeria has the world’s eighth largest gas reserves and also is seeking to increase its exports to Europe by 50 percent by the end of the decade.
National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project
"Sev seni seveni hak ile yeksan (yerle bir) etse de. Sevme seni sevmiyeni Misir'a Sultan etse de/Love someone who loves you even if he floors you. Dont love someone who does not love you even if he makes you the ruler of Egypt." Old turkish saying
In this important CIA report, Turkey was mentioned 4 times. See the full PDF here
Mavi Boncuk
Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project
Based on consultations with nongovernmental experts around the world
December 2004
(page 57)
Possible Turkish membership presents both challenges—because of Turkey’s size and religious and cultural differences—as well as opportunities, provided that mutual acceptance and agreement can be achieved. In working through the problems, a path might be found that can help Europe to accommodate and integrate its growing Muslim population.
(page 58)
According to US Census Bureau projections, about half of the world’s population lives in countries or territories whose fertility rates are not sufficient to replace their current populations. This includes not only Europe, Russia, and Japan, where the problem is particularly severe, but also most parts of developed regions such as Australia, New Zealand, North America, and East Asian countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea. Certain countries in the developing world, including Arab and Muslim states such as Turkey, Algeria, Tunisia, and Lebanon, also are dropping below the level of 2.1 children per woman necessary to maintain long-term population stability.9
9 Nicholas Eberstadt, “Four Surprises in Global Demography,” Foreign Policy Research Institute’sWatch on the
West, Vol 5, Number 5, July 2004.
(page 61)
If no changes were implemented Europe could experience a further overall slowdown, and individual countries might go their own way, particularly on foreign policy, even if they remained nominal members. In such a scenario, enlargement is likely to stop with current members, making accession unlikely for Turkey and the Balkan countries, not to mention long-term possibilities such as Russia or Ukraine. Doing just enough to keep growth rates at one or two percent may result in some expansion, but Europe probably would not be able to play a major international role commensurate with its size.
(page 63)
Deliveries from the Yamal-Europe pipeline and the Blue Stream pipeline will help Russia increase its gas sales to the EU and Turkey by more than 40 percent over 2000 levels in the first decade of the 21st century; as a result, Russia’s share of total European demand will rise from 27 percent in 2000 to 31 percent in 2010. Russia, moreover, as the largest energy supplier outside of OPEC, will be well positioned to marshal its oil and gas reserves to support domestic and foreign policy objectives. Algeria has the world’s eighth largest gas reserves and also is seeking to increase its exports to Europe by 50 percent by the end of the decade.